One of the most frequent question I get asked is this,
Will the condo prices continue to go up?
This is a great question. Everyone wants to make profit from their investments. I have yet to see one person who likes to lose money. In order to predict where the condo prices will go, we need to understand why it has gone up in the first place.
I don't like beating around the bush, so I'll just get straight to the point.
1. Toronto is growing.
It's a bigger city,
more diverse than ever,
more food and culture,
more people
and more buildings.
All of these eventually makes Toronto
a better place to live.
Can you imagine living in a smaller city and having to pay more for a house or a condo?
No.
Generally, bigger city's are more expensive to live, because the demand for housing in the city is greater than demand for a house far away.
Just for fun,
let's exercise our memory and go back in time to year 1999.
Do you remember what Toronto looked like back then?
Other than the business buildings, you can barely see any high-rise condos.
How about 2010?
It's almost a night and day difference.
A lot more high-rise buildings which changes the entire skyline.
This is what Toronto will look like in the near future.
Can you see where Toronto is going?
I certainly believe that's where we're headed.
That's one of the reasons why the condo prices keep rising.
Toronto is becoming a bigger city.
And I am excited. 🙂
2. Cost of developing is rising
When I speak to other platinum agents and developers, they tell me how the cost of building a condo has risen so much.
Let me explain.
There are only so many companies and contractors that does drywalls, or manufacture & install windows, install elevators etc.
Stats show that the number of new condo development is all-time high.
But the companies that actually install parts of the building has not increased.
And the developers all have deadlines to meet.
So what do they do?
Builders pay more to get their project done first.
What do the contractors do?
Ask for more money.
So the developers budget that increase in cost to the price of the condo units.
Makes sense. right?
Moreover,
it doesn't help that the taxes on development has been consistently rising. Thanks to the government who wants to get their portion on this frenzy of condo development.
3. The new mortgage law
The new mortgage law that kicked in as of Jan 1, 2018 really screwed low to middle class Canadians.
The new law essentially reduces that amount of mortgage one can get.
A simple formula is this.
Your max mortgage amount = Net income x 5
ie.
If you're net income is $80,000 (which is pretty high)
Your maximum mortgage amount is $400,000.
A studio is more than that in downtown Toronto.
So people couldn't buy large units anymore,
investors couldn't close large units.
So they all started buying small units. (1B, 1B+D)
The demand for small units went up,
hence the price of small units went up.
People who are just graduating school and in their first jobs cannot afford any condos.
Therefore, the rental market stays strong.
Investors keep buying small units and low-mid class Canadians rent them because they cannot own a condo.
4. People cannot afford houses anymore. So they look for a condo
Houses are crazy expensive.
I don't know how the next generation will ever be able to afford a house.
With the house option unaffordable and unreasonable,
they look towards a condo, which drives the demand up.
Also the fact that the younger generation wants to live downtown where everything is close, in the heart of the culture etc. really helps with the demand of the condos.
Does that help you understand why Toronto condo prices have been rising?
Will it continue to rise?
Take a guess.
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